He wasn't the only one. I too got a refund last month. Since the delays and uncertainty in the supply chain and the lack of (or frequency of) communication I think you are right on with your theory.
You know, they are actually quite quick to comment over in their discord server. But their public facing communications are non-existent. I think it's likely due to they all being so busy (or burned out) that public outreach is the last thing on their minds. But honestly it doesn't that that much time and effort to send out a quick status update from time to time, even if there's nothing to report. Heck, over on the cbmstuff keycaps Jim Drew has sent out no less than 99 updates!
I don't blame folks for pulling out. The thought of all of those pre-assembled machines just sitting in a storage facility awaiting the official packaging truly sucks. But, I'm OK with waiting. The fact that they've refunded some folks already speaks volumes to me compared to the bottomless pit that Kickstarter has become.
When they said March I inwardly hoped for Fall 2022. We'll see... the fact that some Chinese factories are reportedly shutting down again doesn't help, though.